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Transition Report 2013 Stuck in transition?

StR 180sq

Facts at a glance

18 sector-level transition indicator upgrades in 2013.

AS THE 159th member to join the WTO, Tajikistan has taken an important step towards integration in the global economy.

Cover 180sqV2

 

20 countries in the region face large transition gaps in the electric power sector.

OVER 50% of employed Egyptians still work in agriculture or the public sector.


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Structural reform

Sector-level transition indicators

Table S.1 shows the transition scores for 16 sectors in all EBRD countries of operations.1 The methodology is broadly unchanged from previous years (see Chapter 1 of the Transition Report 2010). Tables S.2 and S.3 contain the component ratings for market structure and market-supporting institutions and policies respectively, which together make up the overall sector-level assessment.2 There have been 18 upgrades and seven downgrades – indicated by upward and downward arrows respectively – the reasons for which are outlined below (see also the Country Assessments in the online version of this report: www.tr.ebrd.com).

Table S.1 - Sector-level transition indicators 2013: overall scores

Corporate sectors

  Agribusiness General industry Real estate ICT
Central Europe and the Baltic states
Croatia 3 3+ 3+ 4
Estonia 3+ 4+ 4+ 4
Hungary 4 4- 4- 4
Latvia 3 4- 4- 3+
Lithuania 3+ 4↑ 4- 4-
Poland 3+ 4- 4- 4
Slovak Republic 3+ 4+ 4 4-
Slovenia 4- 3+ 4 3+
 
South-eastern Europe
Albania 3- 2+ 3- 3+
Bosnia and Herzegovina 3- 2 2- 2+
Bulgaria 3 3+ 3+ 4-
FYR Macedonia 3- 3 3- 4-
Kosovo 2+ 2- 2- 2+
Montenegro 2+ 2+ 2+ 3+
Romania 3 3+ 3+ 3+
Serbia 3- 3- 3- 3
 
Turkey 3- 3 3+ 3+
 
Eastern Europe and Caucasus
Armenia 3- 3 3- 3
Azerbaijan 2+ 2 2 2-
Belarus 2+ 2 2 2
Georgia 3- 3- 3- 3-
Moldova 3- 2- 2+ 3
Ukraine 3- 2+ 3- 3-
 
Russia 3- 3- 3- 3+
 
Central Asia
Kazakhstan 3- 2 3 3
Kyrgyz Republic 2+ 2 2+ 3
Mongolia 3- 2+ 2 3
Tajikistan 2 2- 2- 2+
Turkmenistan 1 1 1 2-
Uzbekistan 2 1 2 2
 
SEMED
Egypt 2 2 2+ 3
Jordan 2 2+ 3- 3+
Morocco 2+ 3- 3- 3+
Tunisia 3- 3+ 3- 3

Energy

  Natural Resources Sustainable energy Electric power
Central Europe and the Baltic states
Croatia 4- 3- 3
Estonia 4 3- 4
Hungary 4- 3 3+↓
Latvia 4- 3+ 3+
Lithuania 4- 3+ 3+
Poland 3 3 3+
Slovak Republic 4- 3 4
Slovenia 3+ 3+ 3
 
South-eastern Europe
Albania 3- 3+ 2+↓
Bosnia and Herzegovina 2 2 2+
Bulgaria 3+ 3- 3↓
FYR Macedonia 2+ 2+ 3
Kosovo 2 2- 2+
Montenegro 3+ 2 2+
Romania 4- 3+ 3+
Serbia 2 2+ 2+
 
Turkey 3+ 3 3+
 
Eastern Europe and Caucasus
Armenia 2+ 3- 3+
Azerbaijan 2+ 2+ 2+
Belarus 1 2 1
Georgia 2 3- 3+
Moldova 3 2+ 3
Ukraine 2- 2+ 3
   
Russia 2 2 3+
 
Central Asia
Kazakhstan 2- 2- 3
Kyrgyz Republic 2- 2 2+
Mongolia 2 2 2+
Tajikistan 1 2+ 2
Turkmenistan 1 1 1
Uzbekistan 1 2- 2+
 
SEMED
Egypt 1 2+ 2+
Jordan 2+ 2+ 3
Morocco 2- 3 2
Tunisia 2 3- 2

Infrastructure

  Water and wastewater Urban transport Roads Railways
Central Europe and the Baltic states
Croatia 3+ 3+ 3+ 3-
Estonia 4 3+↓ 3 4
Hungary 4 3+ 4- 3+
Latvia 3+ 4- 3 4-
Lithuania 3+ 4- 3 3
Poland 4- 4- 4- 4-
Slovak Republic 3+ 3+ 3↑ 3+
Slovenia 3+ 3+ 3 3
 
South-eastern Europe
Albania 2+ 3- 3- 2
Bosnia and Herzegovina 2 2+ 3 3+
Bulgaria 3 3+ 3- 3+
FYR Macedonia 2+ 3- 3- 3-
Kosovo 2+ 2+ 2+ 3-
Montenegro 2 3 2+ 2+
Romania 4-↑ 3+ 3 3+
Serbia 2+ 3- 3- 3
 
Turkey 3- 3 3- 3-
 
Eastern Europe and Caucasus
Armenia 3- 2+ 3- 2+
Azerbaijan 2- 2 2+ 2+
Belarus 2- 2 2 1
Georgia 2 2+ 2+ 3
Moldova 2 3- 3- 2
Ukraine 2+ 3- 3- 2+
    
Russia 3 3 3- 4-
 
Central Asia  
Kazakhstan 2+ 2+ 3-↑ 3
Kyrgyz Republic 2↑ 2 2- 1
Mongolia 2 2 2- 3-
Tajikistan 2 2 2- 1
Turkmenistan 1 1 1 1
Uzbekistan 2- 2 1 3-
 
SEMED
Egypt 1 2 2+ 2-
Jordan 2- 2+ 3- 2
Morocco 2+ 3 3- 2
Tunisia 2 2+ 2+ 2+

Financial sectors

  Banking Insurance and other financial services MSME finance Private equity Capital markets
Central Europe and the Baltic states
Croatia 3+ 3+↑ 3- 3-↑ 3
Estonia 4- 3+ 3+↑ 3↑ 3
Hungary 3+ 3 3 3 3↓
Latvia 3+ 3+ 3 3- 3
Lithuania 3+ 3+ 3 2+ 3
Poland 4- 3+↓ 3 3+ 4
Slovak Republic 4- 3+ 4- 2+ 3
Slovenia 3 3+↑ 3-↓ 3- 3
 
South-eastern Europe
Albania 3- 2 2+ 1 2-
Bosnia and Herzegovina 3- 2+ 2+ 2- 2↑
Bulgaria 3 3+ 3↑ 3- 3
FYR Macedonia 3- 3- 3↑ 1 2-
Kosovo 2+ 2 2+ 1 1
Montenegro 3- 2+ 2+ 1 2+
Romania 3 3+ 3↑ 3- 3
Serbia 3- 3 3 2- 3-
 
Turkey 3+ 3 3- 3- 4↑
 
Eastern Europe and Caucasus
Armenia 2+ 2 2+ 1 2
Azerbaijan 2 2 2 1 2-
Belarus 2 2 2 1 2-
Georgia 3- 2 3- 1 2-
Moldova 2+ 2+ 2 2- 2+
Ukraine 3- 2+ 2+↑ 2 3-
         
Russia 3- 3- 2 2+ 4-
 
Central Asia
Kazakhstan 3- 2+ 2 2- 3
Kyrgyz Republic 2 2- 2- 1 2-
Mongolia 2+ 2 2+↑ 2- 2+
Tajikistan 2 2- 2-↑ 1 1
Turkmenistan 1 2- 1 1 1
Uzbekistan 1 2 1 1 1
 
SEMED
Egypt 2+ 2+ 2- 2 2+
Jordan 3 2+ 2+ 2 3-
Morocco 3 3- 2+ 2+ 3-
Tunisia 2+ 2+ 2 2- 2+

Source: EBRD
Notes: The transition indicators range from 1 to 4+, with 1 representing little or no change relative to a rigid centrally-planned economy and 4+ representing the standards of an industrialised market economy. For a detailed breakdown of each of the areas of reform, see the methodological notes in the online version of this Transition Report. Upgrades and downgrades are highlighted by upward and downward arrows respectively. A colour code is used for ease of recognition: green indicates a sector that is at a fairly advanced stage of transition, scoring 3+ or higher. Conversely, dark red denotes sectors where transition has barely advanced and the score is 2 or lower.
There were 18 one-notch upgrades this year: general industry (Lithuania), water and wastewater (Kyrgyz Republic and Romania), roads (Kazakhstan and Slovak Republic), insurance and other financial services (Croatia and Slovenia), MSME finance (Bulgaria, Estonia, FYR Macedonia, Mongolia, Romania, Tajikistan and Ukraine), private equity (Croatia and Estonia) and capital markets (Bosnia and Herzegovina and Turkey). There were seven downgrades: electric power (Albania, Bulgaria and Hungary), urban transport (Estonia), insurance and other financial services (Poland), MSME finance (Slovenia) and capital markets (Hungary). In addition, there were historical revisions in the following cases to take account of new data or reflect a change in methodology (for example, for natural resources): natural resources (Armenia, Kyrgyz Republic, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovak Republic), water and wastewater (Turkey), railways (Poland), insurance and other financial services (Jordan and Tunisia) and MSME finance (Slovak Republic). A correction has also been made to the urban transport score for Turkey, and the banking score for Morocco, which were misreported last year. Please note that the "telecommunications" sector has been renamed "ICT" to reflect methodological changes as of 2011, which have broadened its scope.

Table S.2 - Sector-level transition indicators 2013: market structure

Corporate sectors

  Agribusiness General industry Real estate ICT
Central Europe and the Baltic states
Croatia Small Small Medium Small
Estonia Small Negligible Negligible Small
Hungary Small Small Small Small
Latvia Small Negligible Small Small
Lithuania Small Negligible Small Small
Poland Small Small Small Small
Slovak Republic Small Negligible Small Small
Slovenia Small Small Negligible Small
 
South-eastern Europe
Albania Medium Medium Large Medium
Bosnia and Herzegovina Medium Large Large Medium
Bulgaria Small Small Medium Small
FYR Macedonia Medium Medium Large Small
Kosovo Medium Medium Large Medium
Montenegro Medium Medium Medium Small
Romania Small Small Medium Small
Serbia Medium Medium Large Medium
 
Turkey Medium Small Small Medium
 
Eastern Europe and the Caucasus
Armenia Medium Medium Large Medium
Azerbaijan Medium Large Large Large
Belarus Large Large Large Medium
Georgia Medium Medium Large Medium
Moldova Medium Medium Large Medium
Ukraine Medium Medium Large Medium
 
Russia Medium Medium Medium Medium
 
Central Asia
Kazakhstan Medium Large Medium Medium
Kyrgyz Republic Medium Large Large Large
Mongolia Medium Large Large Large
Tajikistan Medium Large Large Large
Turkmenistan Large Large Large Large
Uzbekistan Large Large Large Large
 
SEMED
Egypt Large Large Medium Medium
Jordan Medium Medium Medium Small
Morocco Medium Medium Medium Small
Tunisia Medium Medium Medium Medium

Energy

  Natural resources Sustainable energy Power
Central Europe and the Baltic states
Croatia Small Medium Large
Estonia Small Medium Small
Hungary Small Medium Medium
Latvia Medium Medium Medium
Lithuania Medium Medium Medium
Poland Medium Medium Medium
Slovak Republic Small Medium Small
Slovenia Small Small Medium
 
South-eastern Europe
Albania Medium Small Large
Bosnia and Herzegovina Large Large Large
Bulgaria Small Large Large
FYR Macedonia Medium Large Medium
Kosovo Medium Large Large
Montenegro Small Large Large
Romania Small Medium Medium
Serbia Medium Large Large
 
Turkey Medium Medium Medium
 
Eastern Europe and the Caucasus
Armenia Medium Medium Medium
Azerbaijan Large Large Large
Belarus Large Large Large
Georgia Large Medium Medium
Moldova Medium Large Medium
Ukraine Large Large Large
 
Russia Large Large Medium
 
Central Asia
Kazakhstan Large Large Large
Kyrgyz Republic Large Large Medium
Mongolia Medium Large Large
Tajikistan Large Large Large
Turkmenistan Large Large Large
Uzbekistan Large Large Large
 
SEMED
Egypt Large Large Large
Jordan Medium Large Medium
Morocco Large Medium Large
Tunisia Large Large Large

Infrastructure

  Water and wastewater Urban transport Roads Railways
Central Europe and the Baltic states
Croatia Medium Medium Small Medium
Estonia Negligible Small Medium Small
Hungary Small Medium Small Small
Latvia Small Small Medium Small
Lithuania Medium Small Medium Medium
Poland Small Small Small Small
Slovak Republic Medium Medium Medium Small
Slovenia Small Small Medium Medium
 
South-eastern Europe
Albania Large Medium Medium Large
Bosnia and Herzegovina Large Medium Medium Medium
Bulgaria Medium Small Medium Small
FYR Macedonia Large Medium Medium Medium
Kosovo Large Medium Medium Medium
Montenegro Large Small Medium Medium
Romania Small Small Small Small
Serbia Large Medium Medium Medium
 
Turkey Large Medium Medium Medium
 
Eastern Europe and the Caucasus
Armenia Medium Large Medium Medium
Azerbaijan Large Large Medium Medium
Belarus Large Large Large Large
Georgia Large Large Large Medium
Moldova Large Medium Medium Large
Ukraine Large Medium Medium Medium
 
Russia Medium Small Medium Small
 
Central Asia
Kazakhstan Large Medium Medium Medium
Kyrgyz Republic Large Medium Large Large
Mongolia Large Large Large Medium
Tajikistan Large Large Large Large
Turkmenistan Large Large Large Large
Uzbekistan Large Large Large Medium
 
SEMED
Egypt Large Large Large Large
Jordan Large Medium Medium Large
Morocco Medium Medium Medium Large
Tunisia Large Large Medium Large

Financial Sectors

  Banking Insurance and other financial services MSME finance Private equity Capital markets
Central Europe and the Baltic states
Croatia Small Small Medium Medium Medium
Estonia Small Small Small Small Medium
Hungary Small Small Medium Medium Medium
Latvia Small Small Medium Medium Medium
Lithuania Small Small Medium Medium Medium
Poland Small Small Medium Small Small
Slovak Republic Small Small Medium Large Medium
Slovenia Medium Small Medium Medium Medium
 
South-eastern Europe
Albania Medium Large Medium Large Large
Bosnia and Herzegovina Medium Medium Medium Large Large
Bulgaria Small Small Small Medium Medium
FYR Macedonia Medium Medium Medium Large Large
Kosovo Medium Large Medium Large Large
Montenegro Medium Medium Medium Large Large
Romania Small Small Medium Medium Medium
Serbia Medium Medium Medium Large Large
 
Turkey Medium Medium Medium Medium Negligible
 
Eastern Europe and the Caucasus
Armenia Large Large Medium Large Large
Azerbaijan Large Large Large Large Large
Belarus Large Large Large Large Large
Georgia Medium Large Medium Large Large
Moldova Large Large Large Large Large
Ukraine Medium Medium Medium Medium Large
 
Russia Medium Medium Large Medium Small
 
Central Asia
Kazakhstan Medium Medium Large Large Large
Kyrgyz Republic Large Large Large Large Large
Mongolia Large Large Medium Large Large
Tajikistan Large Large Large Large Large
Turkmenistan Large Large Large Large Large
Uzbekistan Large Large Large Large Large
 
SEMED
Egypt Medium Large Large Large Medium
Jordan Small Medium Medium Medium Medium
Morocco Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium
Tunisia Medium Medium Large Medium Medium

Source: EBRD
Note: "Large" indicates a major transition gap. "Negligible" indicates standards and performance that are typical of mature industrialised economies.

Table S.3 - Sector-level transition indicators 2013: market-supporting institutions

Corporate sectors

  Agribusiness General industry Real estate ICT
Central Europe and the Baltic states
Croatia Medium Small Small Small
Estonia Medium Negligible Negligible Negligible
Hungary Small Small Negligible Negligible
Latvia Medium Small Negligible Negligible
Lithuania Medium Small Negligible Negligible
Poland Small Small Small Negligible
Slovak Republic Small Negligible Negligible Small
Slovenia Medium Small Negligible Negligible
                    
South-eastern Europe
Albania Medium Medium Medium Medium
Bosnia and Herzegovina Medium Medium Large Medium
Bulgaria Medium Small Small Small
FYR Macedonia Medium Medium Medium Small
Kosovo Large Large Large Medium
Montenegro Medium Medium Large Medium
Romania Medium Small Small Small
Serbia Medium Medium Medium Medium
                    
Turkey Small Medium Medium Small
                    
Eastern Europe and the Caucasus
Armenia Medium Small Medium Medium
Azerbaijan Medium Large Large Large
Belarus Medium Large Large Large
Georgia Medium Medium Small Small
Moldova Medium Large Medium Medium
Ukraine Medium Large Medium Medium
                    
Russia Medium Medium Medium Medium
                    
Central Asia
Kazakhstan Medium Large Small Medium
Kyrgyz Republic Medium Medium Medium Medium
Mongolia Medium Medium Large Medium
Tajikistan Large Large Large Large
Turkmenistan Large Large Large Large
Uzbekistan Large Large Large Large
                    
SEMED
Egypt Large Medium Large Medium
Jordan Large Large Medium Medium
Morocco Medium Medium Medium Medium
Tunisia Medium Small Medium Medium

Energy

  Natural resources Sustainable energy Electric power
Central Europe and the Baltic states
Croatia Small Medium Medium
Estonia Negligible Medium Negligible
Hungary Small Small Medium
Latvia Negligible Small Negligible
Lithuania Negligible Small Small
Poland Medium Small Negligible
Slovak Republic Small Small Small
Slovenia Small Small Small
                    
South-eastern Europe
Albania Medium Medium Medium
Bosnia and Herzegovina Large Large Large
Bulgaria Medium Small Medium
FYR Macedonia Medium Medium Medium
Kosovo Large Large Large
Montenegro Small Medium Medium
Romania Small Small Medium
Serbia Large Medium Large
                    
Turkey Small Medium Medium
                    
Eastern Europe and the Caucasus
Armenia Medium Medium Medium
Azerbaijan Medium Large Large
Belarus Large Medium Large
Georgia Large Large Medium
Moldova Medium Small Large
Ukraine Large Small Large
                    
Russia Large Medium Medium
                    
Central Asia
Kazakhstan Large Large Medium
Kyrgyz Republic Large Large Large
Mongolia Large Medium Large
Tajikistan Large Large Large
Turkmenistan Large Large Large
Uzbekistan Large Large Large
                    
SEMED
Egypt Large Medium Large
Jordan Medium Medium Medium
Morocco Large Medium Large
Tunisia Large Medium Large

Infrastructure

  Water and wastewater Urban transport Roads Railways
Central Europe and the Baltic states
Croatia Small Small Medium Medium
Estonia Small Medium Medium Negligible
Hungary Small Small Negligible Small
Latvia Small Small Medium Negligible
Lithuania Small Small Medium Small
Poland Small Small Small Small
Slovak Republic Small Small Medium Medium
Slovenia Small Small Medium Small
                    
South-eastern Europe
Albania Large Large Medium Large
Bosnia and Herzegovina Large Large Medium Small
Bulgaria Small Small Medium Medium
FYR Macedonia Large Large Medium Medium
Kosovo Medium Large Large Medium
Montenegro Large Large Large Medium
Romania Small Small Medium Small
Serbia Large Large Medium Small
                    
Turkey Medium Medium Medium Medium
                    
Eastern Europe and the Caucasus
Armenia Medium Medium Medium Large
Azerbaijan Large Large Medium Large
Belarus Large Large Large Large
Georgia Large Large Medium Medium
Moldova Large Large Medium Large
Ukraine Large Large Medium Large
                    
Russia Medium Medium Medium Small
                    
Central Asia
Kazakhstan Large Large Medium Medium
Kyrgyz Republic Large Large Large Large
Mongolia Large Large Large Medium
Tajikistan Large Large Large Large
Turkmenistan Large Large Large Large
Uzbekistan Large Large Large Medium
                    
SEMED
Egypt Large Large Medium Large
Jordan Large Large Medium Large
Morocco Large Large Medium Medium
Tunisia Large Large Large Medium

Financial sectors

  Banking Insurance and other financial services MSME finance Private equity Capital markets
Central Europe and the Baltic states
Croatia Small Small Medium Medium Small
Estonia Small Small Small Medium Small
Hungary Medium Small Small Small Small
Latvia Small Small Small Medium Small
Lithuania Small Small Small Medium Small
Poland Small Small Small Small Negligible
Slovak Republic Small Small Negligible Small Small
Slovenia Medium Small Small Medium Small
                    
South-eastern Europe
Albania Medium Medium Medium Large Large
Bosnia and Herzegovina Medium Medium Medium Large Large
Bulgaria Medium Small Medium Small Small
FYR Macedonia Medium Medium Medium Large Large
Kosovo Medium Large Large Large Large
Montenegro Medium Medium Medium Large Medium
Romania Medium Small Small Small Small
Serbia Medium Small Medium Medium Medium
                    
Turkey Small Small Medium Small Small
                    
Eastern Europe and the Caucasus
Armenia Medium Large Medium Large Medium
Azerbaijan Large Medium Large Large Large
Belarus Large Large Large Large Large
Georgia Medium Medium Medium Large Large
Moldova Medium Medium Medium Medium Large
Ukraine Medium Medium Medium Large Medium
                    
Russia Medium Medium Large Medium Medium
                    
Central Asia
Kazakhstan Medium Medium Large Medium Medium
Kyrgyz Republic Large Large Large Large Large
Mongolia Medium Large Large Medium Medium
Tajikistan Large Large Large Large Large
Turkmenistan Large Large Large Large Large
Uzbekistan Large Large Large Large Large
                    
SEMED
Egypt Medium Medium Large Medium Medium
Jordan Medium Medium Large Medium Medium
Morocco Medium Medium Large Medium Medium
Tunisia Large Medium Large Large Large

Source: EBRD
Note: "Large" indicates a major transition gap. "Negligible" indicates standards and performance that are typical of mature industrialised economies.

  1. Owing to of limited data availability and other reasons, the scores for sustainable energy are updated every two years, so the scores for 2013 are the same as those for 2012. [back]
  2. Some sector-level scores differ from those reported last year, not because of upgrades or downgrades, but because of historical revisions to reflect information that was either not available or not fully taken into account in 2012. [back]

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