Transition Report 2013 Stuck in transition?

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Facts at a glance

IN 27 countries out of 34 in the transition region GDP growth slowed in 2012.

ABOVE 20% Remittances as a share of GDP in Tajikistan, Kyrgyz Republic, and Moldova.

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ABOVE 50% Youth unemployment rates in parts of south-eastern Europe.

ABOVE 15% Loss of foreign bank funding as a share of GDP in countries most affected by deleveraging since the third quarter of 2011.

Macroeconomic overview

Trade reversal

After the eurozone crisis intensified in late 2011 and the first half of 2012 exports from CEB and SEE countries fell significantly. This trend has reversed over the past year, as exports grew in all countries apart from Estonia. This recovery has lost some momentum in the CEB region in 2013, but has accelerated in certain SEE countries, notably Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia.

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Source: National authorities via CEIC Data, and IMF International Financial Statistics (IFS).
Note: The chart shows the average of seasonally adjusted month-on-month export growth in the last 12 months. Exports are in US dollar values, adjusted using a US export deflator to correct for exchange rate movements.

Countries further east in the transition region are less exposed to the eurozone, but more vulnerable to developments in Russia. Weakening domestic demand in Russia has depressed exports from some EEC countries. Similarly, Central Asian economies have been impacted by the Russian slow-down, and also by China's deceleration, which has particularly affected Mongolia and Tajikistan. Export from these countries still grew in the past year, but at a slower pace than they had previously.

By the first half of 2013, improving supply prospects and weak demand in emerging markets had led to falls in the prices of all major commodities. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia experienced a dip in export revenues as the oil price dropped in early 2013 (oil production also declined in Azerbaijan). Prolonged stagnation in global commodity prices could constrain growth in Russia and other commodity exporting nations, while also endangering the recovery in transition economies that depend on Russia.