Transition Report 2013 Stuck in transition?

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Facts at a glance

70% Global proportion of countries which had democratic institutions in 2012, compared with 30 to 40 per cent from 1960 to 1990.

INCOME IN 1992 is correlated with levels of democracy in 2012 in a global sample.

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94% of countries with average per capita income above US$ 10,000 held free and competitive elections in 1999.

BY 2000 all constituent democracies of the former Yugoslavia had become full democracies.

Markets and democracy


D. Acemoğlu and J. Robinson (2006)
“Economic backwardness in political perspective”,
American Political Science Review, Vol. 100, pp. 115-131.

D. Acemoğlu, S. Johnson, J. Robinson and P. Yared (2009)
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G. Almond and S. Verba (1965)
The Civic Culture, Boston, Little, Brown and Co.

A. Atkinson, T. Piketty and E. Saez (2009)
“Top Incomes in the Long Run of History”,
NBER Working Paper No. 15408.

R. Barro (1999)
“Determinants of democracy”, Journal of Political Economy,
Vol. 107, No. 6, pp. 158-183.

H. Beblawi and F. Luciani (eds.) (1987)
The Rentier State: Nation, State and the Integration of the Arab World,
London, Croom Helm.

E. Bellin (2004)
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N. Birdsall, C. Graham and S. Pettinato (2000)
“Stuck in the tunnel: is globalization muddling the middle class?”,
Center on Social and Economic Dynamics Working Paper No. 14.

C. Boix (2003)
Democracy and Redistribution, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.

C. Boix (2011)
“Democracy, development and the international system”,
American Political Science Review, Vol. 105, No. 4, pp. 809-828.

C. Boix, M. Miller and S. Rosato (2012)
“A complete data set of political regimes, 1800-2007”,
Comparative Political Studies, November.

C. Boix and S. Stokes (2003)
“Endogenous democratization”,
World Politics, Vol. 55, pp. 517-549.

A. Brown (2001)
“From democratization to ‘guided democracy’”,
Journal of Democracy, Vol. 12, No. 4, pp. 35-41.

R. Dahl (1971)
Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition,
New Haven, Yale University Press.

J. Davies and A. Shorrocks (2000)
“The distribution of wealth”, in A. Atkinson and F. Bourguignon (eds.),
Handbook of Income Distribution, Vol. I, pp. 605–676, Amsterdam, Elsevier.

L. Diamond (2010)
“Why Are There No Arab Democracies?”,
Journal of Democracy, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp. 93-104.

W. Easterly (2001)
“The middle class consensus and economic development”,
Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 6, No. 4, pp. 317-335.

EBRD (1999)
Transition Report 1999: Ten Years of Transition,
Chapters 5 and 6, London.

EBRD (2003)
Transition Report 2003: Integration and Regional Cooperation,
Chapter 2, London.

EBRD (2007)
Transition Report 2007: People in Transition,
Box 3.1, London.

EBRD (2009)
Transition Report 2009: Transition in Crisis?, London.

EBRD (2011a)
Life in Transition: A Survey of People’s Experiences and Attitudes, London.

EBRD (2011b)
Transition Report 2011: Crisis and Transition: The People’s Perspective,
Chapter 3, London.

D. Epstein, R. Bates, J. Goldstone, I. Kristensen and S. O’Halloran (2006)
“Democratic Transitions”,
American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 50, No. 3, pp. 551 569.

T. Frye (2003)
“Markets, Democracy, and the New Private Business in Russia”,
Post-Soviet Affairs, Vol. 19, pp. 24-45.

T. Frye, O.J. Reuter and D Szakonyi (2013)
“Political Machines at Work: Voter Mobilization and Electoral Subversion in the Workplace”, unpublished manuscript.

F. Fukuyama (1989)
“The end of history?”, The National Interest, summer.

F. Fukuyama (1992)
The End of History and the Last Man, Free Press, New York.

B. Geddes (2007)
“What Causes Democratization?”, in C. Boix and S. Stokes (eds.),
Oxford Handbook of Comparative Politics, London, Oxford University Press.

E. Glaeser, R. La Porta, F. López-de-Silanes and A. Shleifer (2004)
“Do institutions cause growth?”, Journal of Economic Growth,
Vol. 9, No. 3, pp. 271-303.

K. Gleditsch (2002)
“Expanded trade and GDP data”, Journal of Conflict Resolution,
Vol. 46, pp. 712-724.

B. Heid, J. Langer and M. Larch (2012)
“Income and democracy: evidence from system GMM estimates”,
Economics Letters, Vol. 116, No. 2, pp. 166-169.

J. Hellman (1998)
“Winners take all: the politics of partial reform in postcommunist transitions”,
World Politics, Vol. 50, pp. 203-234.

E. Huber, D. Rueschemeyer and J. Stephens (1993)
“The impact of economic development on democracy”,
Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 7, pp. 71-85.

S. Huntington (1991)
The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century,
Norman, University of Oklahoma Press.

S. Huntington (1993)
“The clash of civilizations?”, Foreign Affairs,
Vol. 72, No. 3, pp. 22-49.

J. Jackson, J. Klich, and K. Poznańska (2013)
“Democratic Institutions and Economic Reform: The Polish Case”,
unpublished manuscript.

S. Kuznets (1955)
“Economic growth and income inequality”,
The American Economic Review, Vol. 45, No. 1.

S. Lipset (1959)
“Some social requisites of democracy”,
American Political Science Review, Vol. 53, pp. 69-105.

N. Loayza, J. Rigolini and G. Llorente (2012)
“Do middle classes bring institutional reforms?”,
Policy Research Working Paper No. 6015, World Bank.

A. Maddison (2008)
Statistics on World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1-2006 AD.
Available at:

H. Mahdavy (1970)
“The patterns and problems of economic development in rentier states: the case of Iran”, in M. Cook (ed.), Studies in the Economic History of the Middle East, London, Oxford University Press.

M. Miller (2012)
“Democratic pieces: autocratic elections and hybrid regimes since 1815”, manuscript.

B. Moore (1966)
Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy, Boston, Beacon Press.

C. Morrisson (2000)
“Historical perspectives on income distribution: The case of Europe”, in
A. Atkinson and F. Bourguignon (eds.), Handbook of Income Distribution, Amsterdam, Elsevier.

A. Przeworski (1991)
Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America, Cambridge University Press, New York.

A. Przeworski, J. Cheibub, M. Alvarez and F. Limongi (2000)
Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Material Well-Being in the World, 1950-1990, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.

A. Przeworski and F. Limongi (1997)
“Modernization: theories and facts”, World Politics, Vol. 49, No. 2, pp. 155-183.

K. Sonin (2003)
“Provincial Protectionism”, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3973.

A. Tornell and P. Lane (1999)
“Are windfalls a curse? A non-representative agent model of the current account and fiscal policy”, NBER Working Paper No. 4839.

D. Treisman (2012)
“Income, democracy, and the cunning of reason”,
NBER Working Paper No. 17132.

B. Weingast (1997)
“The political foundations of democracy and the rule of law”,
American Political Science Review, Vol. 91, No. 2, pp. 245-263.

C. Welzel and R. Inglehart (2006)
“Emancipative values and democracy: response to Hadenius and Teorell”,
Studies in Comparative International Development, Vol. 41, No. 3, pp. 74-94.

N. Zubarevich (2012)
“Four Russias: rethinking the post-Soviet map”,
Open Democracy Russia, 29 March. Available at: